Market Commentary 01/06/16

EUR/USD – New Higher High

Last night EUR/USD continued to fall until the open of the London session early this morning.

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Until the London session opened the price was falling and was getting closer and closer to hitting the demand zone created by the initial retracement higher. The resulting move up caused by the London traders placing buy trades caused the previous high found at the top of the move down to be broken. Now we have a new high its likely we’ll see continued up-wards movement.

It’s possible a consolidation could be forming due to the way the current high falls inline with the highs made the last time the banks placed sell trades causing a down-movement. We need to see a move lower to confirm this so for moment the best course of action is to wait and see what happens tonight and tomorrow.

 

USD/JPY – Large Move Lower

A significantly large downmove has taken place on USD/JPY today.

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I said in my last post how the market was likely to decline if the low where I’ve drawn the breakout zone from was broken. Funnily enough the low was breached just after my last post was published. The price then started consolidation over the course of the night until a retest at a breakout zone occurred and the main downmove got underway.

The size of this downmove leads me to believe the retracement is now at an end and its likely we’ll see the price decline over the rest of the week once the small up-move we are seeing now is over. The supply zone which I’ve marked is a place where we can watch for a possible short trade although I think the chances of the market coming back into this zone are low.

 

AUD/USD – Potential Bearish Pin Bar On The Daily Chart

The price managed to break back up past the point where I had marked the upper boundary in yesterday’s post and make a new high, but a sell off ensued and we may now see a today’s daily candle turn into a bearish pin bar if any more selling comes into the market.

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If the price can fall below the current low then it would turn today’s candle into a bearish pin bar and would open up the possibility of more downside over the coming days. I would hold off from trading the bearish pin bar if it does in fact form because of the buying we have seen come into the market at the lows. It still isn’t confirmed whether the buying is from banks taking profits or placing buy trades so we will need to watch the price action closely upon the market coming into contact with these lows.

 

 

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2 comments

  1. Mike R - USA

    Great analysis as usual. On the USDJPY chart, the breakout zone area from 110.84 – 110.53 would also be considered a balance area in auction market theory (AMT) terms. Have you ever researched and used auction market theory? How did you determine the breakout zone? Thanks for your input.

    • ForexMentorOnline
      Author

      Hey Mike thanks for the comment.

      Cant say I’ve ever looked too deeply into AMT although I do like the concepts behind it because of the fact it focuses on the people aspect of trading rather than standard technical analysis which most traders focus on.

      The breakout zone was determined by the me seeing the low as a place where breakout traders are likely to have gone short from. My thinking was because a large number of people probably went short when the market broke the low a move back up to the low is likely to make these traders close their sell trades as they will be watching their profit decrease more and more. Closing their trades means buy orders will come into the market which the banks will use to get more short trades placed in the direction of the down-movement.

      That’s the overall theory anyway. I’ll take a look into the balance area you speak of, what other AMT concepts would you recommend taking a look at ?

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