Market Commentary 04/03/16

EUR/USD – Tests Support After NFP

EUR/USD climb higher was given a boost today after the NFP release came out.

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Its strange the release was better than expected but EUR/USD still ended up rising ? It may be due to the Average Hourly Earnings being worse than expected as it came out at the same time as the NFP, sometime these fundamental releases and there impact on the market can be tough to understand.

When the NFP was released the market made a sudden move lower down to the support level marked in yesterday’s post, a rebound then took place and the move higher created a bullish pin bar on the 1 hour chart.

At the moment we are beginning to see some selling enter the market, its likely this selling is coming from the supply zone on the daily chart, whilst this is nothing to be concerned about yet, if the selling continues we may see a retracement down to the 1.0968 support level, a price action signal around this support could provide us with an entry long so make sure you keep close watch on this level.

 

USD/JPY – Trapped In A Consolidation

After seeing yesterdays bearish pin bar on the daily chart it was expected that the market would move lower today.

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A move lower last night made it look like the market was about to break the lows put in yesterday, instead the market found support and has been trapped between the support level found at the lows and a resistance level at the highs. The NFP caused a quick surge higher which was counteracted by more selling, this failed to push the market below the lows and since then buyer have come in and started to push the market higher.

Our focus at the moment will be on whether the market stays in a consolidation or manages to break to the upside or downside, I would think looking at the daily chart a break to the downside is more likely, the move down late on Friday has caused the daily candle to form into low probability bearish pin, we’ll have to wait until Monday to see if the consolidation get broken, until it does I recommend you refrain from placing any long or short trades.

 

AUD/USD – Sill Climbing Higher

After breaking the daily supply zone yesterday it seemed likely a pullback was going to take place.

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Whilst we did see a small pause and small drop lower we didn’t get the pullback we were expecting, the market has now broken past the highs of the consolidation seen on the daily chart and is continuing to advance higher.

I’m not sure when this move is going to stop but I have designated some levels that I believe will be good places to look for entries long.

The daily support level marked in the image is the level in which I believe the market has the highest probability of turning if it falls, this level has confluence with the highs of the consolidation which were broken when the market was moving higher, its probable there were alot of traders who entered long onto the breakout of the consolidation, a retest back to this point would seem likely in order to make a large selection of these traders lose money.

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