Market Commentary 12/07/16

EUR/USD – NFP High Broken

The up-move which began yesterday has continued throughout today and the market has broken the swing high which formed when the NFP was released.

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Even though the market has made a new high it does not mean the banks have not placed sell trades on the high made by the NFP release like I mentioned in my last post. The reason why is because the market has not yet closed above the high itself, it’s only spiked it. The banks may have placed additional sell trades using the buy orders generated by the move up past the high and the down-move we are seeing now could be a result of that. I personally don’t think this is the case and I believe we will see the market move above the new high over the coming days.

The two demand zones are still places where we want to be looking for entries long if the market continues to fall. Watch for bullish engulfing candles before placing your long trades.


USD/JPY – Move Higher Continues

USD/JPY has breached the high of the previous swing down and is now on its way higher.

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The supply zone which I said would cause some kind of retracement to occur was not able to stop the market price from moving higher, a small 2-3 candle pause is all we had once the market had hit the zone and no opportunities to get long trades placed ended up arising from it.

All we can really do now is wait for more market structure to form, at the moment it’s difficult to get any long trades placed because no discernible entries are appearing, we need a retracement to occur which changes the market structure and creates some places where we can look for entries long, until that happens it’s best to just wait on the sidelines and trade other markets.


AUD/USD – Advancing Higher After Retracement

As expected yesterdays retracement came to an end and the market has continued to move higher for most of today.

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The market is now close to the high which was made when Britain decided to leave the EU, a break past this point would confirm the up-trend is still in tact and will likely mean we’ll see more upside movement over the coming weeks. The past few hours have seen some profit taking enter the market in the form of bull candles with wicks and an hour ago a large bearish engulfing candle appeared which might cause the current momentum to shift to the downside.

If the price does start to fall the demand zone could be a place where the market stops and begins rising again. As always look for a bullish engulfing candle to appear before entering long.