Weekly Supply & Demand Analysis For Oct 29 – Nov 4

This is going to be an interesting week and a very volatile one with all the fundamental news coming.

Source: https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?week=oct29.2017

 

EUR USD

Last Thursday Mario Draghi sent the Eur/Usd to a new low after 4 months. The ECB decided to cut QE purchase volumes from 60 Billion Euros to 30 Billion. At the same time, it looks like the QE will extend from ending in December 2017 to September 2018.

Strong data from the USA, with advanced GDP coming out at 3% vs. the expected 2.6% also contributed to the USD strength.

Now, let’s take a look at supply & demand analysis to see what exactly happened & next possible levels.

Looking into the past, on 27 of August 2017, Eur/Usd broke 2 years high of 1.17164.

Imidetaly after breaking 1.17164, Eur/Usd created a new demand zone between 1.16500-1.16885 which held the price up for almost 4 months until Thursday.

 

EUR/USD Daily Chart:

(Note: The above pic is a resized image, to download/view the 4k (3840 x 2160) of the same image,  click on picture)

An H&S pattern also completed forming with the ECB new low on Thursday.

Next fresh supply zone on EUR/USD Daily chart seems to be around

  1. 1.17535 – 1.18365.

Next fresh demand zones on EUR/USD Dailly chart:

  1. 1.14780 – 1.15560
  2. 1.11730 – 1.12230

EUR/USD 4H Chart

(Note: The above pic is a resized image, to download/view the 4k (3840 x 2160) of the same image, click on picture)

On the 4H chart, we can see a better picture of the price and the demand zone between 1.16500-1.1688 which held the price up.

Next fresh supply zone on the 4h EUR/USD chart seems to be:

  1. 1.18000 – 1.18370

In my opinion, this seems to be the only fresh Supply zone on the EUR/USD 4h Chart. All the rest have been consumed, tested once.

Next fresh demand zone on the 4h EUR/USD chart seems to be:

  1. 1.14775 – 1.15260
  2. 1.11730 – 1.12230 (same as the daily demand)

EUR/USD 1h Chart

Usually, I don’t analyze 1h charts, but this one is worth noting.

(Note: The above pic is a resized image, to download/view the 4k (3840 x 2160) of the same image, click on picture)

Eur/Usd 1h chart comes with 2 very interesting zones. I am talking about 2 fresh supply zones for potential shorts.

The 1st zone is above, at 1.17510 – 1.17860. The reason why I think this is important is that this zone is in confluence with the daily supply at 1.17535 – 1.18365.

The 2nd zone is at 1.16500 – 1.16585. The reason why I think this is important is that this looks like a fresh supply to me. If you notice the 1.16500-1.16885 zone, it is the zone which we talked previously, the zone that held Eur/Usd up for a very long time.

On Thursday that zone broke and made a new supply at 1.16500 – 1.16585 which pushed the price lower.

Next week fundamental news

 

This is going to be an interesting week for Eur/Usd.

Two most important event for the coming week is  FOMC and NFP payrolls.

To get a detailed view of next week upcoming fundamental news, check Forex Factory calendar.

Eur/Usd Trade Ideas:

In my opinion, right now the Eur/Usd is in the middle of nowhere & I would stay out. If you’re looking for trade ideas, I would suggest waiting for price to come into our area of interest (4h and Daily levels preferred)

 

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