Market Commentary 07/11/16

EUR/USD – Large Gap Down Due To Clinton Emails

Yesterday the FBI came out and revealed that no new criminal charges were to be brought against Hilary Clinton due to the emails she held on a private server. This news has caused several markets to gap when the market re-opened last night with EUR/USD gapping 66 pips lower.

aviary-photo_131230053140473634Just before the market closed last week a move higher took place which broke through the supply zone the market had re-entered when my market commentary was published. When the market’s opened last night, the gap which occurred as a result of the Clinton emails news caused the market to drop into the demand zone the market came close to entering last Thursday. With the market now falling, I’m not sure if this is the beginning of a move back down to the daily buy zone which caused this whole up-move higher to take place, or if it’s simply just a retracement before another move up.

I think the best thing to do is wait until the election results have been released before placing any trades. Placing trades now is much riskier than usual due to the kind of movements we can seen occur because of news related to the election. Whoever ends up winning the election will cause significant volatility in the markets, volatility which could make us a lot of money if were lucky but also cause to lose a lot if we get things wrong so really it’s good idea to just stay out for the moment.


USD/JPY – Moving Towards High Of The Retracement

We also saw a large gap occur on USD/JPY due to the FBI releases, instead of causing the market to fall like we saw with EUR/USD, it’s caused it to rise and now the market is fast approaching the current high of the retracement lower.

aviary-photo_131230067315789838Before the market breaks through the high it will encounter the sell zone and supply zone which formed when the retracement began. The way the market is currently looking I don’t believe these two zones are going to cause a reversal to take place, I think we’ll see the market beak the high and then move into the daily supply zone found above at the 106.00 level. At the minute there isn’t anything we can do in terms of getting trades placed, the added uncertainty from the election also complicates matters so just stay on the sidelines for now.


AUD/USD – Sharp Rise Deeper Into Daily Sell Zone

In Contrast to EUR/USD and USD/JPY we did not see a gap take place on AUD/USD. It seems like the FBI announcement didn’t have an effect on the market which is strange because it effected most other USD crosses.

aviary-photo_131230075765399505Although no gap took place, there was a sharp drop when the market opened but by the end of the hour it had recovered and the market was back trading at levels seen before the drop. This afternoon a move higher deeper into daily sell zone occurred, the move has created a demand zone but I don’t think this demand zone is going to be suitable for trading due to the fact the market is currently inside the daily sell zone. There’s a high chance the market will end up reversing out of this zone so going long when it’s inside it is a low probability trade at moment.

For now wait to see what the market does after the election results have been released.



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