Market Commentary 09/03/16

EUR/USD – Bounce From 1 Hour Demand


EUR/USD has moved lower from yesterdays bearish pin bar but has seen a comeback over the past few hours due to traders seeing the USD crude oil inventories news as being worse than expected.

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The daily support level marked out yesterday happened to coincide with a demand zone seen on the 1 hour chart.

After falling lower over the course of last night and the majority of the morning the market finally reached the demand zone 5 hours ago, it was at this point where the initial move up began with the oil  news coming out an hour later, when the news came out it began pushing the market higher, now the market has made up most of the losses it had made and is looking like it will close bullish for tomorrows open.

For trading opportunities the support level marked in the image needs to be monitored for price action signals to get long, if this current up-move breaks the highs of the down move we could see the market make break the 1.10674 high on the daily chart, this would signal a far more significant move up.


USD/JPY – Broken 1 Hour Supply


The support zone I talked about watching and the supply zone I told you to keep an eye have both been hit today.

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The resistance zone was hit first when the market made a pull-back late last night, the entry into this trade was a typical one, the market hit the zone a large bearish engulfing appeared on the 5 minute chart and the market fell lower.

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Unfortunately we did not see a large move down, the market made another move up into a supply zone created by the drop from the resistance zone, after another small-move down the market began making a move higher probably in anticipation of the crude oil release coming out, this was when the supply zone hit.

Aviary Photo_131020245976624916As you can see, there wasn’t really any good signals to get short when the market entered this supply, whist we did have a bearish engulfing candle it was too large for us to get a trade placed,since there was no break of the lower the chance of the area resulting in a successful trade decreased significantly.

What we need to focus on is whether today’s daily candle turns out to be a bullish engulfing, if it does then that would suggest more upside movement over the course of the rest of the week, if it doesn’t then the bias is still to the downside wait for the close until deciding on going long or short.



AUD/USD – Making New Highs


AUD/USD continues on its ascent higher today, it looked like the market was gearing up for move down due to the stalling price action seen yesterday, but now we have the highs broken it’s looking more and more likely the market is heading for the resistance level found at the 0.75600 level.

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The demand zone I marked a couple of days ago seemed to stop the market from moving lower, when it was tested for a second time it created the move higher we are seeing now, tomorrow we need to monitor the demand zone marked above, a return to this zone could give the market another push higher so keep a look out for an engulfing candle inside the zone.

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