Market Commentary 11/02/16

EUR/USD – Nearly At The Consolidation Highs

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Today EUR/USD continued its advance up to the highs of the consolidation, currently the market is only 73 pips away from these highs, its likely the market will suffer a pullback next week, it may even begin tomorrow with the release of the retail sales figures at 1.30pm.

We have in fact began to see some selling enter the market, the move up today has struggled to break new ground with the up-moves being matched with down moves shortly after, this suggests pro traders are either selling expecting the market to fall or taking profits on buy positions they have placed some time ago.

Tomorrow I would keep an eye on the open order’s graph provided by Oanda, if a large amount for buy stops begin to accumulate around the 1.14000 level before the news comes out be sure to watch the market closely for a price action signal to enter a trade, if you decide to use a pending order as your entry make sure the stop-loss distance covers the locations of all the buy stops, do not place a stop based on how much you want to lose, place it to cover the area in which the market has the highest probability off turning.


USD/JPY  – Buyers Stepping In ?


The market continued to decline today with no pullback occurring up to the resistance level marked out in yesterday’s post.

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In the past few hours we have seen a sharp bullish large range candle enter the market, whole this candle was caused by news released earlier this afternoon the fact that this one candle manged to move as far as it did suggests the current down move is becoming weak and may be ready to either consolidate again or pullback.

This may occur tomorrow when the retail sales comes out, if the news comes out good for USD it will push EUR/USD down possibly creating the beginning of the pullback which is inevitably going to happen next week, on USD/JPY it will push the market up causing the start of the pullback or consolidation.

The demand zone marked in the image is the only real trade opportunity that was available today, whilst the market hasn’t moved significant away from this point it could materialize into a good trade if the market hasn’t broken the current low before the news comes out tomorrow.



AUD/USD – Awaiting RBA Announcement

In my last post I talked about how if the market broke yesterdays high it would be likely for the market to go up, I also said if it was to break the low its possible the market has a high chance of falling lower, today we saw both the high and the low get broken one after the other.

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Tomorrow morning we have the Governor of the Royal Bank of Australia talk about what the bank plans to do in the future concerning short term interest rates, this could end up being a highly significant announcement, if he ends up saying something unexpected, the knee jerk reaction could cause the market to rise or fall very quickly.

Personally I want to see a break above the high marked in the image before definitely saying the market is prone to moving higher, for now, tighten stops if you have any trades placed and await the announcement by the Bank Of Australia, if you do not currently have any trades placed I recommend you refrain from placing any more trade before the announcement comes out.

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