Market Commentary 23/03/16

EUR/USD – Retest of Breakout, Continued Decline

EUR/USD has continued to fall today after retesting the breakout point which the market broke yesterday.

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You can see I’ve marked the breakout zone on the image above, when the market ran into this zone is generated a large move lower which eventually failed and turned into a bullish pin bar. This is why the market moves up past the top of the zone on the next candle.

Our focus is still on taking short trades until the market reaches the daily demand zone, its possible it will reach this zone by the end of the week, at the moment its only around 65 pips away from the zone, if a news release comes out positive for USD its likely the market will drop into the zone and we can begin looking for entries long.


USD/JPY – Broken Supply Bigger Pullback Taking Place

The supply zone which was created yesterday failed to push the market lower, we may now see the market move back up into the daily consolidation before reversing lower back inline with the downtrend.

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We can see the market easily broke the supply zone, if you look on the lower time-frame you’ll notice there wasn’t any price action signals warning us of an impending move lower so there was no chance of us to getting short anyway.

There was an entry to get long into this move up from when the market retested the breakout point.

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Here’s the breakout zone seen on the 15 minute chart.

As the marked entered the zone there were two possible signals to get long, the first coming from the bullish pin bar which spiked the outer edge of the zone, and the second was another bullish pin which was seen after the market dropped deeper into the zone.

Tomorrow we need to watch the current move to see if the market falls. I you go back and look at the first image you can see how there is some selling coming into the market in form of a bearish engulfing candle, this is significant as it’s the first real sign we have of large selling entering the market, if the high of the engulf is broken continue looking for opportunities t0 get long, if the market falls and break the low of the bullish pin which signals the beginning of this swing up, start looking for entries short.


AUD/USD – No Consolidation, Market Approaching Daily Demand


I said in my last post how it was possible that AUD/USD may be entering into a consolidation, today we have seen the market fall significantly beyond the lows of the consolidation and is now getting close to the daily demand zone which formed back on the 16th March.

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There haven’t really been any opportunities to get short into this down-move. Due to the close proximity of the market to the daily demand zone I would say taking any short trades from this point on-wards could be very risky.

Over the coming day observe the price action when the market enters into the daily demand, if you see signs of buying i.e large engulfing candles watch for a break of a swing high before going long.

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