Market Commentary 24/2/16

EUR/USD Bullish Pin Bar Off Support


After breaking yesterdays low EUR/USD has rebounded higher today creating a bullish pin bar in the process.

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We can see the daily support level marked in the image, the support has confluence with the highs of the consolidation the market was in previously before it began moving higher.

The good thing about this pin bar isn’t the fact that its reacting off a support level, but the fact that its appeared low into this down-move. We can see a few days ago there was another bullish pin bar, the problem with this pin was it came too early into the down-move, the pin we are seeing today has a higher probability of working out due to there being more traders being short now than there was on the previous pin.

If the pin works out successfully it will push the market higher, its likely the move higher will result in all the trend traders who have been going short into this down-move close their sell trades at a loss, causing more upside movement in the process.

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Tomorrow it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the support level marked above, since we have a new higher high we have a confirmation of the market wanting to move higher, a move lower may take place first in order to sucker more traders into believing the market is about to fall, watch for price action signals around the level, a pin bar or engulfing candle at this support is likely to result in a successful trade.


USD/JPY – Approaching The Lows Of The Pullback


Today we have seen a significant decline in USD/JPY

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Yesterdays move lower put the market in close proximity to the lows of the pullback, after a small amount of resistance came into the market from these lows a big break lower earlier today has put the market less than 100 pips away from making a new lower low.

The resistance levels marked out in yesterday’s post did not manage to provide us with any trading opportunities, the focus now is on the new resistance level which has been created today.

We can see this resistance sits at the bottom of a supply zone which formed when the market dropped, a price action signal with this level could give us a decent entry into the market.

AUD/USD – Is The Pullback Over ?


The bearish pin bar seen yesterday on the daily chart provided a small down-move today although currently it looks like the market is likely to recover.

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The support level which I marked didn’t provide us with another move up as we were expecting, there was a small reaction, but a failure to make a new high destined this move to fail. As the move down continued the market eventually found support at the 0.71450 level which was just below the support level marked out yesterday.

If you switch to the 4 hour time-frame you can see the a large bullish pin bar has formed from the recovery which has taken place over the last couple of hours.

For now we need to keep an eye on if the reaction to the support level is able to sustain itself for another move higher, the high marked on the image will need to be penetrated before we can start looking for entries into long potions.

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